Market Recap for January 24, 2022

A look at the weekly #’s in the area

Getting Super Granular

Every morning I look at the list of new homes on the market, closed sales, pending sales, and price drops. I’ll often preview vacant homes just so that I can specific floor plans fresh in my mind so that I can better help my clients. I’m consistently awash in national numbers but the larger companies are consistently regional – which would be fine if they considered south Napa & Solano counties as it’s own region. Unfortunately, they lump us in with the greater Bay Area at large and we get caught in the maelstrom.

To that end, I’m going to be getting super granular this year. Although I won’t be totally eschewing the national trends, I’ll be focused on tracking our tiny regional numbers on a weekly basis looking to spot larger trends 📈 as they actually happen, rather than after. I’ll be sharing that information with you both here as well as a light-hearted recap in my weekly newsletter. You can sign up for it here.

Is Inventory Really an Issue?

There has been a significant demographic shift in the last couple of years that’s bringing in a new wave of buyers – Millenials. I hate to say it because it makes me feel like I’m on the blaming-them-for-everything bandwagon, except that I’m not. Most of them are finally at an age where they have enough earning power to purchase their first homes. Collectively, they are as large a buying cohort as the Boomers (they should also be a major political force, but that’s a different issue).

At the same time, new construction costs are soaring and new construction starts are way behind historical levels. With Boomers holding onto their homes longer, there is less inventory at the top so the top tier of move-up buyers (middle age couples with kids) have nowhere to go…which means that couples with younger kids can’t get out of their starter homes…and with no starter homes available, first time home buyers are SOL.

If you haven’t seen Office Space, I just can’t help you…

In case you missed it, this is a problem…I have absolutely no clue as to how much the 317 proposed single family homes at Watson Ranch will help. If these units depress any home prices, it will likely be in the older parts of American Canyon – Rancho del Mar, Victoria Faire, McKnight Acres, etc. However, judging by the new construction prices in Cordelia and the Fairfield/Vacaville area, the price point will be too high to damper AC prices.

June 17, 2016 RE Update

Ok, so I’ve taken a little bit of time off from the ole blog…but I’m back at it now! Here is my mid-June market update…in video! Check. It. Out.

All-in-all, the real estate market is looking pretty strong – don’t let my dour face fool you.  I’m still getting used to the camera…Inventory is coming back, buyers are still in; we’re still seeing multiple offer situations but they are a more reasonable 2 or 3 offers, rather than the 9 offers I had seen before.

I hope that you all have a great Father’s Day Weekend. If you are looking for something to do, check out the 10th Annual Pirate Festival down by the water front in Vallejo. I know that I’ll be there on Sunday. I hope to see you there!

 

Ready, Able…& Unwilling?

In case you missed it, there is a lack of inventory right now. One of the reasons why may be that the more affluent aren’t so interested in moving right now.

According to the latest infographic from CAR, many affluent individuals are holding off on buying until they find exactly what it is they want…

Just Listed – Open Sunday 1-4pm

Exclusively Offered at $340,000

306 Los Altos Drive, American Canyon

Come home to the Napa Valley! Delightful 3 bed, 1 bath, 1550± sf home in the heart of Rancho del Mar in American Canyon. Large, rustic addition with exposed beams creates a generous, inviting and open living space. Great for entertaining! Large backyard with mature fruit trees: plum, fig and pears. Blocks away from parks, schools, freeways and shopping. Experience all that American Canyon has to offer!

Pacific Union’s 4th Quarter Update

Last week Pacific Union released it’s 4 Quarter update for Napa County. Lack of inventory is still driving housing prices up.

Here’s the complete Q4 Market Pulse from Pacific Union:

The High Price of Renovating

The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.)  just put out another One Cool Thing last night, and to me,
this time, the numbers are staggering.

According to the infographic, the cost of a complete renovation to your home…after purchase! is a little over $263,000. That is almost the median sales price on a single family home for the US in November!

With that type of expense, thankfully 93% of homeowners hired outside, professional, help. I’m assuming that the other 7% had their contractor’s license!

Most home buyers know that it’s difficult to find “the perfect house.” However, with a little extra time talking to your agent before you buy, you can prevent the latest high cost of housing. It’s important to tell your agent everything that you want in a home. In short: Build Your Dream House. The more that you ask for, the more that we can go out and get the home that you want.

A Look Behind…and Ahead

Happy New Year! The state of the American Canyon Real Estate Market is strong!

That’s the short version of the look back to the 2015 AC market. A bit longer look shows this:

• Home sales rose almost 20% year-over-year as a total of 164 were sold in the city, a 27 unit jump up from 2014;
• The median home price for a single family home rose 6.9% to $435,000;
• The median days on market (the length of time it took a home to sell) was virtually unchanged at 45 days on market.

The number of months of inventory dropped 60% from November to December and there is now less than one total month of inventory on the market. This brings us to our look ahead…

Currently there are 17 homes on the market with 3 new listings. Most projections for Napa County have home prices rising in the 7-10% range.  I see no reason why this won’t hold true in south county as well.

One of the leading drivers of the continued, steady home price increase is the paucity of homes on the market. Many leading economists with Zillow, NAR and elsewhere, expect this trend to continue.  However, as can be seen in the 2015 American Canyon home sale numbers, that is starting to loosen as well.

Economists expect a continued loosening of the credit market allowing for more buyers. However, it’s worth remembering that in an LA Times article last year, the so-called Millennials are the most frugal generation since the depression.  Expect them to wade gently into the home buying market for a little while longer.

Home of the Week

320 Kent Way – Listed by Elizabeth Olcott of Keller Williams, this 4 bed, 2 bath is on the market at $435,000. It’s situated on the corner of Kent and Northampton; great location that is walking distance to schools and parks. The kitchen and family room make for great open space. The family room opens up into a sun room and a pool in the back. A great venue for entertaining.

US Homeownership Continues to Decline

UC Berkeley/s Terner Center for Housing Innovation analysis of the Census Bureau’s 2014 American Community Survey shows that the national homeownership rate has dropped for the eighth straight year – declining to 63.1% last year. This analysis shows that the housing market is still a work in progress.

In the San Francisco-East Bay metro area, homeownership rates are approximately 53.2%, placing it within the top five US areas for lowest ownership levels.  Silicon Valley and the Peninsula were only marginally better at 56.3% of individuals owning a home.

Perhaps the most staggering number is that over 50% of renters were cost-burdened in 2014. This means that over 50% of the individuals who are renting spend 30% or more of their income on housing. Nationally, 34.6% of all household were cost-burdened in 2014 which is the lowest rate in the past decade.

in San Francisco, 48.8% renters are cost-burdened and 48.7% are cost-burdened in San Jose.  Creating an even greater burden on renters is the ridiculously low vacancy rate. San Jose was only at 3.8$ (the lowest in the country) and San Francisco-East Bay area had a 4.7% vacancy rate.  Vacancy rates in the Napa-Solano region are consistently low, particularly in south county

American Canyon 2015 2Q Market Update

The American Canyon Real Estate Market continued its solid, 2015 pace during the second quarter. Overall, the median home price rose 19.2% year-over-year and rose 13% quarter-over-quarter.  Buoyed by the torrid Vallejo-Fairfield market which is now (according to N.A.R.) the second hottest market in the country, American Canyon home prices continue to rise while length of time on the market continues its dramatic decline. From a high of 97 days on market as recently as February, the days on market in the area is down to 40.  According to Bankrate.com, the average 30-year fixed rate is hovering around 4.14%. With rates expected to increase to 5% by the end of the year, once seemingly fickle buyers are starting to pounce. For its size, American Canyon still has modest inventory but the levels are remaining stable at around 20 homes for sale at any given time.  Look for a continued strong market in the City through the rest of the year.

American Canyon/Napa County Q1 2015 Update

American Canyon Real Estate continued to surge forward in Q1. Home sales increased by 20% from 2014 Q1. The number of homes on the market also increased substantially at a 157% increase. The median home sales price increased to $383,000 (or up 2.9% from 2014 Q1). Overall, the market is strong and healthy.

The bulk of the home sales have been west of 29, with a number of homes coming and going quickly and with multiple offers. The difference between sales price and list price is holding steady at almost 100%.

The American Canyon market has taken a collective breath for the first 2 weeks of April. The number of homes for sale has dropped to between 12-15 at any given moment in time. It’s looking more and more likely that the Fed won’t raise the rates this June; even if they do, it’s unclear as to whether or not it will have any significant impact on interest rates (still below 4%!!).

One item to note, very few homes in Waterton, the Preserve or Vintage Ranch (comparatively speaking) have gone on the market this year; it is these homes that generally drag the entire market upward. It will be interesting to see how many owners decide to cash out with rising prices. Already, the market is seeing $700,000 and $800,000 homes for sale again. The question is whether or not they will sell.