Market Recap for January 24, 2022

A look at the weekly #’s in the area

Getting Super Granular

Every morning I look at the list of new homes on the market, closed sales, pending sales, and price drops. I’ll often preview vacant homes just so that I can specific floor plans fresh in my mind so that I can better help my clients. I’m consistently awash in national numbers but the larger companies are consistently regional – which would be fine if they considered south Napa & Solano counties as it’s own region. Unfortunately, they lump us in with the greater Bay Area at large and we get caught in the maelstrom.

To that end, I’m going to be getting super granular this year. Although I won’t be totally eschewing the national trends, I’ll be focused on tracking our tiny regional numbers on a weekly basis looking to spot larger trends 📈 as they actually happen, rather than after. I’ll be sharing that information with you both here as well as a light-hearted recap in my weekly newsletter. You can sign up for it here.

Is Inventory Really an Issue?

There has been a significant demographic shift in the last couple of years that’s bringing in a new wave of buyers – Millenials. I hate to say it because it makes me feel like I’m on the blaming-them-for-everything bandwagon, except that I’m not. Most of them are finally at an age where they have enough earning power to purchase their first homes. Collectively, they are as large a buying cohort as the Boomers (they should also be a major political force, but that’s a different issue).

At the same time, new construction costs are soaring and new construction starts are way behind historical levels. With Boomers holding onto their homes longer, there is less inventory at the top so the top tier of move-up buyers (middle age couples with kids) have nowhere to go…which means that couples with younger kids can’t get out of their starter homes…and with no starter homes available, first time home buyers are SOL.

If you haven’t seen Office Space, I just can’t help you…

In case you missed it, this is a problem…I have absolutely no clue as to how much the 317 proposed single family homes at Watson Ranch will help. If these units depress any home prices, it will likely be in the older parts of American Canyon – Rancho del Mar, Victoria Faire, McKnight Acres, etc. However, judging by the new construction prices in Cordelia and the Fairfield/Vacaville area, the price point will be too high to damper AC prices.

June 17, 2016 RE Update

Ok, so I’ve taken a little bit of time off from the ole blog…but I’m back at it now! Here is my mid-June market update…in video! Check. It. Out.

All-in-all, the real estate market is looking pretty strong – don’t let my dour face fool you.  I’m still getting used to the camera…Inventory is coming back, buyers are still in; we’re still seeing multiple offer situations but they are a more reasonable 2 or 3 offers, rather than the 9 offers I had seen before.

I hope that you all have a great Father’s Day Weekend. If you are looking for something to do, check out the 10th Annual Pirate Festival down by the water front in Vallejo. I know that I’ll be there on Sunday. I hope to see you there!

 

Just Listed – Open Sunday 1-4pm

Exclusively Offered at $340,000

306 Los Altos Drive, American Canyon

Come home to the Napa Valley! Delightful 3 bed, 1 bath, 1550± sf home in the heart of Rancho del Mar in American Canyon. Large, rustic addition with exposed beams creates a generous, inviting and open living space. Great for entertaining! Large backyard with mature fruit trees: plum, fig and pears. Blocks away from parks, schools, freeways and shopping. Experience all that American Canyon has to offer!

A Look Behind…and Ahead

Happy New Year! The state of the American Canyon Real Estate Market is strong!

That’s the short version of the look back to the 2015 AC market. A bit longer look shows this:

• Home sales rose almost 20% year-over-year as a total of 164 were sold in the city, a 27 unit jump up from 2014;
• The median home price for a single family home rose 6.9% to $435,000;
• The median days on market (the length of time it took a home to sell) was virtually unchanged at 45 days on market.

The number of months of inventory dropped 60% from November to December and there is now less than one total month of inventory on the market. This brings us to our look ahead…

Currently there are 17 homes on the market with 3 new listings. Most projections for Napa County have home prices rising in the 7-10% range.  I see no reason why this won’t hold true in south county as well.

One of the leading drivers of the continued, steady home price increase is the paucity of homes on the market. Many leading economists with Zillow, NAR and elsewhere, expect this trend to continue.  However, as can be seen in the 2015 American Canyon home sale numbers, that is starting to loosen as well.

Economists expect a continued loosening of the credit market allowing for more buyers. However, it’s worth remembering that in an LA Times article last year, the so-called Millennials are the most frugal generation since the depression.  Expect them to wade gently into the home buying market for a little while longer.

Home of the Week

320 Kent Way – Listed by Elizabeth Olcott of Keller Williams, this 4 bed, 2 bath is on the market at $435,000. It’s situated on the corner of Kent and Northampton; great location that is walking distance to schools and parks. The kitchen and family room make for great open space. The family room opens up into a sun room and a pool in the back. A great venue for entertaining.

Happy Thanksgiving

From my family to yours…

American Canyon Home Sales Dip in October

Both the number of sales and the median sales price dipped dramatically in October. According to stats gathered from BAREIS, the number of American Canyon sales dropped to seven (7) for the month, down 10 units from the previous month.

The drop in sales is similar to years past, however, with such a robust housing inventory (for American Canyon) it is a bit of a surprise. Pending home sales also dropped (9.1%) from September and were down 33.3% year-over-year.

However, in a sign that the American Canyon Real Estate Market remains healthy, the number of new homes on the market jumped by 50% from last month and 38.5% year-over-year.  The American Canyon Market was recently named the 31st hottest market in the country and really, does not seem to be cooling off.

While the median home sales price dropped significantly month-to-month, it was still up 2.6% year-over-year.  This puts it right in line with leading economists who expect rising prices to increase approximately 3% across the nation in 2016.  I think that may be underestimating the overall strength of the American Canyon housing market as sellers are continuing to push the limits on their pricing, and appear to be successfully hitting their mark.

Home of the Week

Without a doubt, the home of the week is Suzi Hersom’s (Coldwell Banker, Brokers of the Valley) listing at 434 Northrup Ln. Listed at $594,950, this home is one of a kind. The home has great light, no real rear neighbors, updated kitchen and even has a wet bar.  This home is perfect for entertaining or just laying around with the family.  It is located in the Napa Valley Unified School District and is set at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. Contact me to schedule a showing, it won’t last long.

US Homeownership Continues to Decline

UC Berkeley/s Terner Center for Housing Innovation analysis of the Census Bureau’s 2014 American Community Survey shows that the national homeownership rate has dropped for the eighth straight year – declining to 63.1% last year. This analysis shows that the housing market is still a work in progress.

In the San Francisco-East Bay metro area, homeownership rates are approximately 53.2%, placing it within the top five US areas for lowest ownership levels.  Silicon Valley and the Peninsula were only marginally better at 56.3% of individuals owning a home.

Perhaps the most staggering number is that over 50% of renters were cost-burdened in 2014. This means that over 50% of the individuals who are renting spend 30% or more of their income on housing. Nationally, 34.6% of all household were cost-burdened in 2014 which is the lowest rate in the past decade.

in San Francisco, 48.8% renters are cost-burdened and 48.7% are cost-burdened in San Jose.  Creating an even greater burden on renters is the ridiculously low vacancy rate. San Jose was only at 3.8$ (the lowest in the country) and San Francisco-East Bay area had a 4.7% vacancy rate.  Vacancy rates in the Napa-Solano region are consistently low, particularly in south county

American Canyon Weekly Update – 8/18

A quick look at the American Canyon Real Estate Market shows that it is continuing to ride on Solano County’s strong coat tails. Homes are going into contract almost as quickly as they are coming onto the market. 24 homes are currently for sale for an average list price of $626,079 which is actually down $50,000 from the week before. Mortgage rates are hovering right around 4% and appear to be settling.

In other community news, the City Council held two meetings last week: Friday & Sunday.  On Friday, the City Council heard an update on the City Housing Plan. I will post more information about the hearing once it becomes available.

Additionally, the City Council met at Roberto’s cafe Sunday afternoon at the request of Holy Family Catholic Church.  The entire council met in order to disseminate additional information about the proposed water rate hike. This was not an official Council Meeting.

American Canyon July Numbers are Hot!!

I just finished running the numbers for July for American Canyon and the numbers are out of this world! 

The median home sales prices is up 25% year-over-year!! and up 22% from last month. The units sold is up almost 20% year-over-year and the days on market is down year-over-year. All of this shows signs of a continued recovery by the American Canyon home market as it marches towards pre-recession prices.

Right now, the American Canyon market is being buoyed by an increasingly unaffordable Napa market and an amazingly strong Vallejo-Fairfield market, the second hottest market in the country in June.

At the end of July, the Fed announced that they were not prepared to immediately raise the short term interest rates which has helped to keep interest rates low on a 30-year fixed mortgage. Current rates from bankrate.com show a 3.85% rate, down .19% from last week. A 15 year is at 3.02% (down .13%) and a 5/1 ARM is at 3.05% (down .08%).

There are currently 22 homes for sale in American Canyon, including a couple of diamonds in the rough.  In particular, 118 Carmel Drive which is being offered at $328,000 and listed by Silvia Gomez with RE/MAX Gold Elite. Tax records show as a 3/2, but the has 4 beds. Located in the Rancho del Mar subdivision, it is right in the middle of Community Park I & Gadwall Park.  Rancho del Mar is an up-and-coming neighborhood.  With older homes, the prices are still a little depressed compared to the rest of the City, but there are many young families moving into the area and fixing them up.  Great starter homes they look like they’ll keep their value as housing prices continue to rise.

American Canyon 2015 2Q Market Update

The American Canyon Real Estate Market continued its solid, 2015 pace during the second quarter. Overall, the median home price rose 19.2% year-over-year and rose 13% quarter-over-quarter.  Buoyed by the torrid Vallejo-Fairfield market which is now (according to N.A.R.) the second hottest market in the country, American Canyon home prices continue to rise while length of time on the market continues its dramatic decline. From a high of 97 days on market as recently as February, the days on market in the area is down to 40.  According to Bankrate.com, the average 30-year fixed rate is hovering around 4.14%. With rates expected to increase to 5% by the end of the year, once seemingly fickle buyers are starting to pounce. For its size, American Canyon still has modest inventory but the levels are remaining stable at around 20 homes for sale at any given time.  Look for a continued strong market in the City through the rest of the year.